Player Props Lose Value in Turkey’s Betting System

In recent weeks, the player props and special markets offered by Turkey’s state-regulated sports betting operator (known locally as “İddaa”) have rapidly lost value due to inflated lines and noticeably lower odds. The gap between these markets and those offered by international sportsbooks has grown to a level that is impossible to ignore.

For many years, İddaa’s special markets—such as player statistics, team totals, and various in-game props—were considered the most attractive part of its offering. While the main markets (match winner, totals, handicaps) generally came with lower odds compared to foreign bookmakers, player props often remained competitive. Even when they weren’t necessarily “profitable,” they were at least not unplayable.

Recently, however, the situation has shifted dramatically. Lines are being pushed unnecessarily high, while the corresponding odds fail to compensate for the increased risk. From three-pointer totals and rebounds in basketball to goal kicks, total shots, and throw-ins in football, the decline in value spans virtually every category.

The Core Problem: Inflated Lines and Depressed Odds

There has always been a structural reason why İddaa could not match the odds of international sportsbooks: Turkey’s heavy taxation on betting operations. Because of this, main markets have consistently been priced below global standards. Bettors understood this and accepted it.

But special markets and player props were traditionally an exception. From time to time, they even offered odds comparable to—or occasionally better than—major international platforms. For many bettors, this category represented the last remaining opportunity for meaningful value.

That edge has disappeared. While line movement is expected in any market, İddaa has begun raising lines without offering the increased payout such moves normally require. A three-pointer line that sits at 8.5 with roughly 1.80 odds on international books might appear as 9.5 or even 10.5 on İddaa—while still offering a significantly lower price.

This isn’t limited to a few isolated fixtures. Over the last several weeks, there has been a widespread deterioration across special markets. Three-pointer totals, rebounds, assists, passes, shots, and goal-related props have all become harder to hit, yet the odds remain disproportionately low. What was once the platform’s most competitive category has turned into a systematic disadvantage.

Basketball Examples: The EuroLeague Market Has Become Unrecognizable

Basketball illustrates this decline clearly, especially in the EuroLeague. The discrepancy between line difficulty and payout has grown to the point of being unreasonable. International operators continue to offer realistic baselines at fair prices, while İddaa both raises the lines and drops the odds.

A clear example came from the ASVEL vs. Monaco matchup played on November 19:

• ASVEL total threes:
  İddaa: Over 10.5 — 1.31
  International sportsbook: Over 9.5 — 1.86

• Monaco total threes:
  İddaa: Over 9.5 — 1.28
  International sportsbook: Over 8.5 — 1.83

• ASVEL rebounds:
  İddaa: Over 35.5 — 1.26
  International sportsbook: Over 33.5 — 1.83

• Monaco rebounds:
  İddaa: Over 37.5 — 1.24
  International sportsbook: Over 35.5 — 1.75

Here, the odds are only part of the issue. The bigger problem is that the required performance threshold is harder to reach on İddaa. A bet that needs 8.5 or 9.5 to win internationally suddenly requires 9.5 or 10.5 domestically—yet pays significantly less.

This pattern now appears across a large portion of EuroLeague matches. Player assists, rebounds, three-pointers, and other statistical props have become consistently inflated, and the previously occasional opportunities for value have nearly vanished.

The State of NBA Player Props on İddaa

The situation is similar—if not worse—in the NBA. The well-known example involving Alperen Şengün is just one illustration of a broader trend that affects nearly every player prop.

In the Cleveland vs. Houston matchup played on November 20:

• International books listed Şengün’s points line at 22.5,

• İddaa posted 24.5 points with odds around 1.60.

This alone is a substantial gap, yet it represents the new normal. Across recent games:

• Lines are routinely inflated by at least 2–3 units,

• Odds remain lower than expected, even with these tougher baselines.

This isn’t limited to points.
Assists and rebounds show the same pattern:

• A 6.5 assist line abroad becomes 7.5 or 8.5 on İddaa.

• A 9.5 rebound line becomes 11.5 domestically—at a worse price.

The logic is the same across the board: higher difficulty, lower payout.

Not long ago, NBA props occasionally offered value, especially for bettors who followed individual performance trends closely. But today, whether it’s points, rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks, nearly all lines are inflated and the odds suppressed. The category has effectively lost its appeal.

Football Special Markets: Value Erosion Across the Board

Football props have not escaped this trend. In recent weeks, goal kicks, total shots, corner counts, throw-ins, and player stats have all suffered from the same imbalance: higher lines paired with underwhelming odds.

International operators continue to offer realistic numbers, while İddaa:

• Pushes goal kick lines unnecessarily high,

• Adds 1–2 extra shots to typical shot and shot-on-target lines,

• Posts elevated corner and throw-in totals,

• Yet still fails to offer odds that justify the increased risk.

For instance, a match where a team may have a 4.5 or 5.5 shots line abroad might see a 6.5 or 7.5 line on İddaa. Total corner markets are similarly inflated—from 8.5 or 9.5 internationally to 10.5 or 11.5 domestically. As a result, the markets feel forced, unnatural, and rarely worth considering.

Football’s special markets historically offered some degree of predictability, but the recent adjustments have made valuable opportunities scarce. Today, many of these markets feel less like options and more like traps.

Consequences for Bettors: Not Just Less Value, but Fewer Playable Markets

The issue is no longer simply a lack of value—many markets have become practically unplayable. Bettors long ago accepted that İddaa would offer lower odds than global platforms. A typical example might be:

• International line: 8.5 three-pointers at 1.85

• İddaa line: 8.5 three-pointers at 1.65

This was expected, understandable, and still playable.

What we see now is entirely different:

• Lines increase,

• Odds decrease,

• And the under option is often not offered at all.

This is one of the most frequently raised complaints:
If the operator offers an inflated “over” line, the logical counterpart—the under—should also be available. Its absence turns the market into a one-sided, restrictive structure that lacks fairness and practicality.

Combined with the inflated difficulty and suppressed payouts in markets like rebounds, assists, shots, corners, and more, bettors increasingly feel that there is no longer any strategic angle to exploit. The sentiment is clear: this is not just about “no value”—it is about markets that simply cannot be played under rational betting principles.

This Trend Cannot Continue: A Market Correction Feels Inevitable

The recent direction of İddaa’s special and player markets appears unsustainable. Continuously raising lines, lowering payouts, and removing under options risks rendering the entire category meaningless.

The current structure undermines risk–reward balance and fails to meet bettor expectations. From a market logic standpoint, a correction seems unavoidable. At some point, the same lines must be offered at lower odds, or the same odds must be paired with more reasonable lines. Otherwise, these markets will lose all relevance.

Bettors are not asking for high-value opportunities or unrealistic odds.
They simply want reasonable, playable markets—the very thing that special and player props once reliably provided.

If this trend continues, İddaa risks losing the one area where it historically differentiated itself. What was once a dynamic and engaging section of the platform could be reduced to something people ignore entirely.